The end of the earnings season is always a good time to take a step back and see who shined (and who not so much). Let’s take a look at how thrifts & mortgage finance stocks fared in Q4, starting with PennyMac Financial Services (NYSE: PFSI).

Thrifts & Mortgage Finance institutions operate by accepting deposits and extending loans primarily for residential mortgages, earning revenue through interest rate spreads (difference between lending rates and borrowing costs) and origination fees. The industry benefits from demographic tailwinds as millennials enter prime homebuying age, technological advancements streamlining the loan approval process, and potential interest rate stabilization improving affordability. However, significant headwinds include net interest margin compression during rate volatility, increased competition from fintech disruptors offering digital-first experiences, mounting regulatory compliance costs, and potential housing market corrections that could impact loan portfolios and default rates.

The 13 thrifts & mortgage finance stocks we track reported a slower Q4. As a group, revenues beat analysts’ consensus estimates by 1.8% while next quarter’s revenue guidance was 2.1% below.

Amidst this news, share prices of the companies have had a rough stretch. On average, they are down 10.9% since the latest earnings results.

PennyMac Financial Services (NYSE: PFSI)

Founded during the 2008 financial crisis to help address the mortgage market meltdown, PennyMac Financial Services (NYSE: PFSI) is a specialty financial services company that originates, services, and manages investments related to residential mortgage loans in the United States.

PennyMac Financial Services reported revenues of $537.1 million, flat year on year. This print fell short of analysts’ expectations by 15.4%. Overall, it was a softer quarter for the company with a significant miss of analysts’ revenue and EPS estimates.

“PFSI finished the year with a solid fourth quarter, generating a 10 percent annualized return on equity with strong production results offset by increased runoff on our MSR asset as prepayment speeds increased,” said Chairman and CEO David Spector.

PennyMac Financial Services delivered the weakest performance against analyst estimates of the whole group. Unsurprisingly, the stock is down 41.7% since reporting and currently trades at $87.25.

Read our full report on PennyMac Financial Services here, it’s free.

Best Q4: Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR)

With roots dating back to 2003 and a focus on the stability of multifamily housing, Arbor Realty Trust (NYSE: ABR) is a specialized lender that provides financing solutions for multifamily and commercial real estate while also originating and servicing government-backed mortgage loans.

Arbor Realty Trust reported revenues of $133.4 million, down 12.1% year on year, outperforming analysts’ expectations by 10.3%. The business had a stunning quarter with a beat of analysts’ EPS and revenue estimates.

The market seems happy with the results as the stock is up 6.3% since reporting. It currently trades at $7.72.

Is now the time to buy Arbor Realty Trust? Access our full analysis of the earnings results here, it’s free.

Weakest Q4: Ladder Capital (NYSE: LADR)

Founded during the 2008 financial crisis when traditional lenders retreated from commercial real estate, Ladder Capital (NYSE: LADR) is a real estate investment trust that originates commercial real estate loans, owns commercial properties, and invests in real estate securities.

Ladder Capital reported revenues of $50.47 million, down 26.4% year on year, falling short of analysts’ expectations by 9.2%. It was a disappointing quarter as it posted a significant miss of analysts’ tangible book value per share estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates.

Ladder Capital delivered the slowest revenue growth in the group. As expected, the stock is down 9.7% since the results and currently trades at $9.99.

Read our full analysis of Ladder Capital’s results here.

Ellington Financial (NYSE: EFC)

Operating under the guidance of Ellington Management Group, a respected name in structured credit markets, Ellington Financial (NYSE: EFC) acquires and manages a diverse portfolio of mortgage-related, consumer-related, and other financial assets to generate returns for investors.

Ellington Financial reported revenues of $78.24 million, up 8.7% year on year. This result came in 13.8% below analysts' expectations. Overall, it was a disappointing quarter as it also logged a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates and a significant miss of analysts’ net interest income estimates.

The stock is down 5.2% since reporting and currently trades at $11.87.

Read our full, actionable report on Ellington Financial here, it’s free.

WaFd Bank (NASDAQ: WAFD)

Founded in 1917 and rebranded from Washington Federal in 2023, WaFd (NASDAQ: WAFD) is a bank holding company that provides lending, deposit services, and insurance through its Washington Federal Bank subsidiary across eight western states.

WaFd Bank reported revenues of $188.3 million, up 7.6% year on year. This print missed analysts’ expectations by 2.6%. It was a softer quarter as it also produced a significant miss of analysts’ revenue estimates and a miss of analysts’ net interest income estimates.

The stock is down 8.8% since reporting and currently trades at $30.76.

Read our full, actionable report on WaFd Bank here, it’s free.

Market Update

Late in 2025 into early 2026, there was hand wringing around artificial intelligence. For software companies, the fear was that AI would erode pricing power and compress margins as new tools made it easier to replicate what once required expensive enterprise platforms. Crypto investors had their own version of the same anxiety: if AI agents could trade, allocate capital, and manage wallets autonomously, what exactly was the long-term value of today’s crypto infrastructure?

These concerns triggered a noticeable rotation away from these sectors and into safer havens. But markets rarely dwell on one narrative for long. Spring 2026 came, and the focus shifted abruptly from technological disruption to geopolitical risk. The US’ conflict with Iran became the dominant driver of market psychology, and when geopolitics takes center stage, the script changes quickly. Investors stop debating growth rates and start worrying about oil supply, inflation, and global stability.

Want to invest in winners with rock-solid fundamentals? Check out our Top 5 Quality Compounder Stocks and add them to your watchlist. These companies are poised for growth regardless of the political or macroeconomic climate.