What Happened?

Shares of supply chain software provider Manhattan Associates (NASDAQ: MANH) fell 5.2% in the afternoon session after the company provided a weaker-than-expected earnings forecast for 2026, which overshadowed its strong fourth-quarter results. 

The supply chain software provider reported fourth-quarter 2025 revenue of $270.4 million and adjusted earnings per share of $1.21, both of which beat Wall Street's expectations. However, investors focused on the future outlook. For the full year 2026, the company's adjusted earnings guidance of $5.12 per share at the midpoint missed analyst estimates, raising concerns about its future growth prospects.

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What Is The Market Telling Us

Manhattan Associates’s shares are somewhat volatile and have had 11 moves greater than 5% over the last year. In that context, today’s move indicates the market considers this news meaningful but not something that would fundamentally change its perception of the business.

The previous big move we wrote about was 23 days ago when the stock gained 2.4% on the news that Truist Securities raised its price target on the company to $240 from $230 while keeping its Buy rating. The positive analyst action came amid wider investor interest in artificial intelligence stocks. The software sector saw gains as market players focused on companies tied to the AI boom. This aligned with the company's own focus, as Manhattan Associates had been noted for its work on AI for the retail industry, fitting into the broader positive market mood.

Manhattan Associates is down 3.1% since the beginning of the year, and at $162.16 per share, it is trading 45% below its 52-week high of $295.10 from January 2025. Investors who bought $1,000 worth of Manhattan Associates’s shares 5 years ago would now be looking at an investment worth $1,401.

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