Potential for €2.55 billion Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) Industry in Ireland by 2050

• SAF Industry could provide up to 1,000 high-skilled jobs
• Policy changes needed to help accelerate pathway for SAF production
• Feasibility study by SkyNRG and SFS Ireland, supported by Avolon, Boeing, ORIX Aviation

Ireland has the potential to develop a sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) industry generating revenue of €2.55 billion by 2050 and providing up to 1,000 high-skilled jobs. These are the findings of a feasibility study into the production of SAF in Ireland produced by SkyNRG and SFS Ireland, in a partnership supported by Avolon, Boeing and ORIX Aviation.

The study - Ireland’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Opportunity - was launched today by the Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Simon Coveney TD, and looks at the key role SAF will play in helping the aviation industry achieve its net zero goal by 2050. IATA estimates that SAF, which can be used to replace traditional jet fuel, will deliver over 60% of the contribution needed to reduce aviation emissions to reach net zero by 2050. The European Union’s ReFuelEU initiative obligates fuel suppliers to blend SAF into the fuel available at all EU airports, rising from 6% SAF by 2030, to 70% by 2050.

To meet EU mandated SAF volumes alone, Ireland will require approximately 10 SAF plants of 80 kilo tonnes production capacity each. This would create an Irish SAF sector generating revenue of €2.55 billion per annum and could provide up to 1,000 high-skilled jobs in direct and indirect employment. Further export opportunities could significantly increase these numbers.

The research finds that the biggest opportunity for Ireland lies in Power to Liquid (PtL) production of eSAF, a synthetic fuel produced by combining green hydrogen (extracted through electrolysis from water using renewable energy) with biogenic CO₂. SAF derived from bio-based intermediates like renewable natural gas has potential to scale up more rapidly to fulfill the advanced biofuels portion of the ReFuelEU mandate.

Significant progress is required for Ireland to be able to develop eSAF at scale, particularly to ensure there is enough excess renewable power available to produce hydrogen in the required quantities. The increased levels of offshore wind power generation that Government initiatives are targeting by 2030 will put the country in a stronger position to develop a domestic SAF industry.

Key policy initiatives the research recommends to be prioritised by the Government and other stakeholders include:

• Targets: Include sustainable aviation in climate action plans to strengthen Ireland’s position as a renewable fuel aviation hub.
• Incentivise: Incentivising mechanisms are crucial for a viable PtL business case to stimulate the development of both SAF and hydrogen: capital allowances, tax credits, guaranteed minimum pricing, investment incentives (e.g. via EII or SCI schemes).
• Research and Development: Funding and promotion of SAF technologies leveraging Ireland’s third-level institutions and Government entities such as Enterprise Ireland, Science Foundation Ireland and SEAI.
• Reforming planning process: Implement a comprehensive and systematic approach in the planning process for SAF production plants, taking into account the potential for future energy parks and circular economy development in Ireland.
• Storage and transport: Invest in hydrogen storage and transport, and solving the electricity congestion issues through more flexible use / development of the grid.
• Collaboration: Collaboration between public and private sector is critical to mobilise the required investment. Cross-departmental Government relationships are also essential (DECC, DOT, DAFM) to ensure comprehensive policy framework.

Minister for Enterprise, Trade and Employment, Simon Coveney, TD said: “The Government is committed to supporting EU and international action to reduce aviation emissions. The European Green Deal has set ambitious targets for reducing net emissions by at least 55 per cent by 2030, when compared to 1990 levels, and to be the first climate neutral continent by 2050. The agreement of the global long-term aspirational goal (LTAG) for international aviation at the International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO), which includes a collective global goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 further demonstrates the level of ambition of States and Industry alike. We welcome the proactive approach from the aviation sector to progress its own net zero commitments. This research presented today shows that there are clear future economic benefits from the green economy, which can create new jobs and exciting new business ventures. We look forward to engaging further with industry to explore Ireland’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) potential.”

Andy Cronin, CEO, Avolon, said: “Our support for this partnership reflects our ambition to be at the forefront of sustainable innovation that will reshape the future of aviation. Large-scale deployment of SAF and the transition of the global fleet to new technology aircraft are the two biggest near-term drivers that can progress the sector’s net zero by 2050 goal. It is going to require large levels of investment and close collaboration across many stakeholders, and we value the Minister’s engagement to explore Ireland’s sustainable aviation fuel opportunity.”

Sheila Remes, Vice President, Environmental Engagement and Business Development, Boeing, said: “Significant progress is required for Ireland to be able to develop eSAF at scale, particularly to ensure renewable power is available in the scale required production of hydrogen in the required quantities. The increased levels of offshore wind power generation that Government initiatives are targeting by 2030 will put the country in a much stronger position to develop a domestic SAF industry.”

Marie-Louise Kelly, CFO, ORIX Aviation, and Chair, Aircraft Leasing Ireland, said: “ORIX Aviation joined with its partners Avolon, Boeing, SkyNRG and SFS Ireland on this ambitious project because we want to be part of the innovations and as crucially, the collaborations, that will define aviation’s journey to Net Zero 2050. Along with our sectoral experience we were also able to add the wider ORIX Group’s extensive expertise in renewable power generation to this study. This report has identified multiple opportunities for Ireland on this journey. We welcome the Minister’s commitment to engage on SAF production and look forward to exploring ways to position Ireland at the heart of the global drive to Net Zero 2050.”

Darren Carty, Partner, SFS Ireland commented: “We welcome the Minister’s support and take pride in collaborating with industry leaders like SkyNRG, Avolon, Boeing, and ORIX Aviation as an SME. This feasibility study is the foundation for establishing a low-carbon SAF industry in Ireland. We look forward to advancing collaboration and essential public-private partnerships. SFS Ireland is firmly dedicated to spearheading the production of SAF in Ireland and actively participating in the overarching mission to reduce carbon emissions within the aviation industry.”

Philippe Lacamp, CEO, SkyNRG, said: “Ireland has an opportunity to combine its renewable resources, skilled workforce, and the right policy environment to create a thriving Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) industry. SAF is essential for the aviation industry to achieve its net-zero target by 2050 and we need to build up SAF production capacity to cater to the rapidly rising demand. While there is still work to be done, we are convinced that Ireland can play a significant role in creating this SAF production capacity. We look forward to working with the Irish Government and other stakeholders to make SAF a reality for the important Irish aviation sector.”

Methodology

This study assessed the feasibility of SAF production in Ireland under the pathways currently certified. An initial desktop analysis was conducted followed by stakeholder engagement with more than 50 stakeholders to better understand the market dynamics and sustainability of the available feedstocks.

About Avolon

Avolon is a leading global aviation finance company connecting capital with customers to drive the transformation of aviation and the economic and social benefits of global travel. We pride ourselves on our deep customer relationships, our collaborative team approach, and our fast execution. We invest with a long-term perspective, diversifying risk and managing capital efficiently to maintain our strong balance sheet. Working with 147 airlines in 65 countries, Avolon has an owned, managed, and committed fleet of 897 aircraft, as of 30 September 2023. www.avolon.aero

About Boeing

As a leading global aerospace company, Boeing develops, manufactures, and services commercial airplanes, defence products and space systems for customers in more than 150 countries. As a top U.S. exporter, the company leverages the talents of a global supplier base to advance economic opportunity, sustainability, and community impact. Boeing's diverse team is committed to innovating for the future and living the company's core values of safety, quality, and integrity. Learn more at www.boeing.com

About ORIX Aviation

ORIX Aviation was established in 1991 in Dublin, Ireland and is a 100% subsidiary of ORIX Corporation of Japan. ORIX Aviation owns and manages over 200 aircraft and leases them to more than 50 airline customers located in over 30 countries. ORIX Aviation is a 30% shareholder of Avolon, who sit amongst the top three aircraft lessors globally. ORIX Aviation is focused primarily on investing and trading opportunities in the aircraft leasing and aircraft asset management space while maintaining a strong balance sheet of owned assets to support stable long-term profits and future growth. ORIX Aviation is ranked by S&P Global Ratings. It has obtained a “Strong” overall ranking (the highest level available) with a stable outlook in respect of ORIX Aviation as a commercial aircraft lease servicer. The asset management clients of ORIX Aviation are investors based in Japan, US funds and international banks and financial investors. www.orixaviation.com

About SFS Ireland

SFS Ireland’s mission is to help bring a level of sustainability to Ireland’s aviation industry that will meet the urgent climate goals of the European Union and provide a pathway to net-zero emissions before 2050. Established in 2020 by two airline pilots, the company is partnered in this project with leading corporates in the aviation industry, connecting them to the Irish renewable energy and circular bio-economy sectors. With expertise in engineering, business management and operations, the company is well-positioned to facilitate the development of a path to decarbonise the aviation industry here in Ireland. www.sustainableflightsolutions.com

About SkyNRG

SkyNRG is a global leader in Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF). Since 2010, the company has been scaling up SAF demand and production capacity for the industry to meet its 2050 net zero commitment. SkyNRG has supplied SAF to over 40 airlines across the world and is now developing dedicated production facilities to support the shift from fossil jet fuel to sustainable aviation fuel. As a certified B Corp™ SkyNRG prioritizes producing the most responsible and sustainable SAF worldwide. Recognized as a sustainability leader, it maintains an independent Sustainability Board, which advises the company on feedstocks and provides strategic guidance on wide-ranging sustainability issues. SkyNRG’s operations are certified by RSB and CORSIA. Learn more at www.skynrg.com

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