Quantum computing stocks have seen wild swings lately due to their volatile nature. Pure-play firms like IonQ (IONQ) and Rigetti (RGTI) have raced higher on breakthrough results and new contracts, then fallen back amid broader tech selloffs and scrutiny.
This week’s headline has been grabbed by IonQ, which just announced it was selected to compete in the U.S. Missile Defense Agency’s new SHIELD/Golden Dome program. Under this $151 billion indefinite-delivery IDIQ contract, IonQ can vie for future Pentagon task orders alongside 2,400 other companies. Investors see the move as a boost to IonQ’s defense credentials after a recent short-seller report.
Quantum Leader Faces Market Reality
IonQ is an American quantum computing hardware and software company led by CEO Niccolo de Masi. It builds trapped-ion quantum computers and sells access to them via cloud partners like Amazon (AMZN) Braket, Microsoft (MSFT) Azure, etc. The company is considered a global leader in quantum computing, networking, and sensing, competing with fellow pure-plays like Rigetti and technology giants dabbling in quantum, IBM (IBM), and Google (GOOG) (GOOGL). IonQ’s mission is to scale up from tens of qubits to millions, projecting a 2 million-qubit machine by 2030, and achieve fault-tolerant quantum computing.
IONQ stock has been on a roller coaster. It soared to an all-time high of $84 by October, driven by blockbuster revenue growth and technical milestones. For example, CEO Niccolo de Masi touted the achievement of his 2025 tech goals, hitting #AQ64 and setting a 99.99% two-qubit fidelity record as validation of IonQ’s leadership.
However, the stock cooled in late 2025 and early 2026. Amid a tech selloff and a critical short-seller report, IONQ fell sharply, ending 2025 only slightly above its start. The Wolfpack Research report in early 2026 claimed much of IonQ’s revenue was tied to lapsed Pentagon earmarks, sending the stock 28% lower in February. IonQ called those claims “false, misleading, and unsubstantiated.”
Today’s price is down roughly 25% year-to-date (YTD), reflecting a serious pullback, but it can be a buying opportunity.
Rich Multiples Demand Future Growth
Talking about valuation, IonQ looks extremely expensive. Its market cap of about $11 billion as of early 2026 dwarfs the expected revenues of $110 million for 2025. That works out to a price/sales ratio north of 100×. In fact, its price-to-sales is above 100×, while typical cloud software or semiconductor firms trade in the low single digits to low teens on the same metric. In short, Wall Street is pricing in enormous future growth, far beyond today’s hardware norms. Put another way, IonQ’s premium multiples imply expectations for breakthrough market share or technology wins.
Some bulls argue this premium is partly justified by IonQ’s unprecedented growth rate and market positioning. Its Q3 revenue was growing at over 200% YoY, and the company is plowing cash into R&D and acquisitions, e.g., Oxford Ionics, Vector Atomic, and planned SkyWater fab, to cement its lead. But skeptics note such lofty multiples leave little margin for error; any hiccup could trigger significant downside.
Golden Dome Contract Boosts IonQ’s Defense Role
On Feb. 23, IonQ announced a win for the Missile Defense Agency’s SHIELD program. This is the procurement framework underpinning the “Golden Dome” missile-defense initiative. The contract ceiling of $151 billion makes IonQ one of roughly 2,400 firms eligible to compete for future task orders. Notably, the award is for eligibility to bid, not a fixed dollar deal; any revenue will depend on winning specific project awards under the program.
The broader impact is strategic; it highlights IonQ’s fit in U.S. defense/quantum initiatives. CEO de Masi emphasized IonQ’s “broad set of quantum technologies and supporting capabilities” spanning computing, networking, sensing, and security. In practice, IonQ and its subsidiaries already pitch into national-security projects, such as DARPA, the Air Force, Oak Ridge, etc. The Golden Dome eligibility reinforces that narrative and could help counter the Wolfpack’s claims. The key question: will this lead to concrete contracts? If IonQ can turn eligibility into task awards for things like quantum satellite sensors or secure communications, it could meaningfully boost future revenue.
IONQ Will Report Its Q4 Earnings Today
IonQ is all set to report its Q4 earnings after the market closes today. Management expects growth to continue. IonQ reaffirmed guidance for Q4. It said Q4 revenue should exceed Q3 levels (seasonal slowdown). For the full year 2025, management raised revenue guidance to $106 to $110 million. It kept its adjusted EBITDA loss forecast around $206–216M for 2025, signaling continued heavy investment.
Analysts are tabulating 2026 figures too. Consensus estimates ahead of the Q4 report call for roughly $40.5 million in Q4 sales, about a 244% YoY increase, and EPS around a loss of $0.48. For the full year 2025, analysts see about 150% revenue growth YoY, but a widened GAAP loss of around -$5.08 per share, up from -$1.56 last year. Note these figures are 2025 estimates; for 2026, the Street will likely model continued revenue acceleration given IonQ’s expanding product line and big cash buffer, though official guidance for 2026 was not given.
Overall, IonQ’s recent quarters have far exceeded sales expectations, which arguably justifies the upward guidance. But investors will closely watch guidance for 2026 and Q4 to confirm sustainability. Many analysts emphasize that guidance, credibility, and revenue breakdown, organic vs. from new subsidiaries, will be as important as the raw numbers.
Analyst Views and Price Targets
Wall Street’s outlook on IonQ remains sharply divided, underscoring the uncertainty surrounding the commercialization timeline for quantum computing. The consensus 12-month target currently sits at $75, which implies massive upside of 142% from recent trading levels
Among the more optimistic voices, Rosenblatt Securities has maintained one of the highest expectations for the company. The firm reiterated its “Buy” rating and $100 price target in February 2026, citing IonQ’s growing exposure to defense contracts and commercial partnerships as key long-term catalysts.
Similarly, Wedbush Securities upgraded its outlook after the company delivered multiple quarters of guidance beats, arguing that expanding quantum offerings justify a premium valuation.
More cautious assessments have emerged from other firms. DA Davidson raised its price target to $55 but retained a “Neutral” stance, acknowledging improving fundamentals while remaining wary of near-term execution risks. Morgan Stanley adopted an “Equal-Weight” rating with a $35 target in February 2026 after lowering expectations tied to defense funding, noting that a portion of prior revenue stemmed from non-recurring government grants.
Bottom Line on IONQ Stock
Overall, the Golden Dome news is a positive signal on IonQ’s trajectory, but buying IONQ now comes down to risk tolerance. The stock is richly valued, and a lot hinges on execution and 2026 guidance. Cautious investors might wait for clear evidence of winning task orders or profitability trends, while more aggressive bulls may view the pullback and defense win as a buying opportunity.
On the date of publication, Nauman Khan did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. For more information please view the Barchart Disclosure Policy here.
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