While the exact results of the mid-term elections aren't known just yet, polling models and PredictIt odds, which represent consensus expectations, show a narrow Republican majority in the House and a probable Democrat control of the Senate.
![](https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEg0nR8374Qn5bU4lj4BQu-f7PDRBQIAdYzHpgXPK9a_9jGelaSOzMkRK3UVcVyNe92vo3XHGQBXxhq5hEwqjFQk-AvAcSHarPhj3XBeI4DELdQ5QYyJKjaEn29hi1x3b-AQ9MAlk3TBi1iiVqIzA9bDSl64fvzczJ9bKuHdUSFOsgwzRFhWbpmozLTluA/w400-h199/PredictIt%20election.png)
This result should be equity positive for several reasons:
- A tighter fiscal policy which makes the Fed's job easier and raises the odds of a more dovish path for monetary policy.
- A narrow Republican majority reduces the tail risk of a disorderly debt ceiling impasse. The recent UK experience showed that the market has little patience for fiscal uncertainty.
The full post can be found here.