Better late than never.
I said on Friday, in a Report that was titled "5% Friday – Down Week Needs 2% Bounce Into the Holiday Weekend":
Usually we're happy with a 1% bounce off a 5% drop but really this is a 10% drop so we need a 2% (of the index) bounce, which would be 80 points (20% of the 400 we lost) on the S&P 500.
That would take us to 3,780 and that would be a massive one-day move in /ES (not that we haven't had them on the way down) so let's not count on it. That means we can't be cute with our hedges and need to stay well-covered into the weekend – even if today does look LIKE a recovery.
We're not "there" yet but I'm sure we'll get back to 3,780 but then what? There's nothing technically pretty about failing below 3,800. 3,840, in fact, is the weak retracement of 4,000 and, if we hang out below 3,840 for too long, all we do is prove that we're in the weak end of the 4,000 channel while we wait for the 50-day moving average to cross below that line and THEN we are in BIG TROUBLE…
3,840 is 277 points below the 50-day moving average so it's going to drop 5 points per day while we're down here, which means we have until about July 20th before things go critical. Fortunately, that's plenty of time for the overold MACD to resolve itself and, HOPEFULLY, that will give us a little bit of bullish tailwind but will it be enough to get us back over the 4,000 line? That's going to be up to bank earnings, which begin on July 14th.
Any bounce is a good bounce at the moment and volume was HUGE on Friday and we didn't go down – so that was…
