Morningstar’s Rekenthaler on Economic Predictions
September 12, 2018 at 06:30 AM EDT
A recent article by John Rekenthaler of Morningstar begins: “Economic predictions are wonderfully useful…after the fact.” He discusses hindsight bias, and how “history gives a simple picture of that which was once complex.” To illustrate his point, Rekenthaler shares the results of a Merrill Lynch...