Hillman's fourth quarter results were met with a negative market reaction as the company reported lower-than-expected revenue growth. Management pointed to ongoing softness in end-market volumes, particularly in existing home sales, as a key challenge. CEO Jon Michael Adinolfi noted, “Existing home sales remain soft, and unchanged from the thirty-year lows we saw during 2024,” highlighting how these conditions dampened demand for home improvement products. Despite these headwinds, Hillman cited operational efficiency and supply chain management as contributors to maintaining margins.
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Hillman (HLMN) Q4 CY2025 Highlights:
- Revenue: $365.1 million vs analyst estimates of $372.4 million (4.5% year-on-year growth, 2% miss)
- Adjusted EPS: $0.10 vs analyst estimates of $0.10 (in line)
- Adjusted EBITDA: $57.54 million vs analyst estimates of $56.57 million (15.8% margin, 1.7% beat)
- EBITDA guidance for the upcoming financial year 2026 is $280 million at the midpoint, below analyst estimates of $283.2 million
- Operating Margin: 4.6%, in line with the same quarter last year
- Market Capitalization: $1.68 billion
While we enjoy listening to the management's commentary, our favorite part of earnings calls are the analyst questions. Those are unscripted and can often highlight topics that management teams would rather avoid or topics where the answer is complicated. Here is what has caught our attention.
Our Top 5 Analyst Questions From Hillman’s Q4 Earnings Call
- Lee Jagoda (CJS Securities) asked about management’s confidence in new business wins for 2026. CEO Jon Michael Adinolfi pointed to new products and an expanded sales team, expressing optimism about outpacing prior year wins.
- W. Andrew Carter (Stifel) inquired about the near-term sales deterioration in Protective Solutions. Adinolfi cited channel inventory balancing and timing of product launches as key factors, expecting growth to resume with new launches.
- W. Andrew Carter (Stifel) also questioned the impact of customer transitions on the Robotics and Digital Solutions segment. Management indicated these transitions would be largely completed by mid-2026, after which growth is expected to accelerate.
- Stephen Volkmann (Jefferies) asked about incremental EBITDA margins if end-market volumes recover. CFO Rocky Krafts estimated incremental margins of about 20% in the core business, and higher for RDS, should volumes improve.
- Brian Christopher McNamara (Canaccord Genuity) pushed for clarity on the step-down in revenue growth guidance. Krafts attributed this to a softer start to the year and ongoing market headwinds, leading to a more conservative outlook.
Catalysts in Upcoming Quarters
In upcoming quarters, the StockStory team will be watching (1) the pace and impact of new business wins and product rollouts, especially in the pro channel and MinuteKey 3.5 fleet, (2) the normalization of margins as tariff and inventory effects subside, and (3) signs of recovery in existing home sales volumes that could lift demand. M&A execution and progress in the Canadian segment will also be important indicators.
Hillman currently trades at $8.55, down from $10.06 just before the earnings. Is there an opportunity in the stock?See for yourself in our full research report (it’s free).
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