The global hotel industry (NYSEARCA: HOTL), headwinds aside, is experiencing a rebound in business that is expected to continue for the next 5 to 7 years. The rebound is driven in large part by post-pandemic reopenings, business travel and tourism which has been pent up since 2022 and only now really getting back to prepandemic levels. Up 56.6% YOY in the US alone, the hotel and hospitality industry is the 7th fastest-growing in 2022 and will provide comfortable returns for investors over the long term. The only drawback to the industry is the low dividend yield, which is offset to some degree by distribution safety and the outlook for distribution growth.
InterContinental Hotels Group Dominates The US Market
When it comes to size, Intercontinental Group (NYSE: IHG) dominates the US market with the largest share and is the #2 player worldwide. The company’s brands include Regent, Intercontinental, Holiday Inn and Crowne Plaza among other smaller boutique-oriented names. As for the business, which is headquartered in the UK, the company is expected to bring in over $2 billion in revenue for fiscal 2022 and see its earnings grow by at least 20%. The boost in travel is helping to deleverage fixed costs and drive margin expansion despite the impacts of inflation and FX, which is good news for the dividend. The company is paying a safe but small 0.75% in yield but it does come with an outlook for growth. The distribution, erratic as it may be, tends to grow over time and has been boosted by periodic stock splits as well.
Choice Hotels International, Affordable Comfort With Distribution Stability
Choice Hotels International (NYSE: CHH) is a US-based operator and commands the 2nd spot in regard to market share in the United States. The company’s brands include Comfort Inn, Quality Inn, Sleep Inn and Econo Lodge among others. The company’s business surpassed the prepandemic levels early in 2022 and has grown in the time since. The company’s earnings are expected to grow by roughly 25% in 2022 and then slow to a more sustainable 10% pace in 2023.
The earnings are powering a small but safe dividend that is not only more reliable than Intercontinental’s but comes with a better outlook for growth. The company cut the distribution during the pandemic in order to preserve capital but has, other than that, only ever increased the payment. As it is now, the distribution is just above the prepandemic payment and it is expected to grow again at the end of the fiscal year.
The analyst's sentiment in Choice Hotels has been slipping this year and that is helping to open up an opportunity for 2023. The Marketbeat.com consensus sentiment is down to a weak Hold from a much firmer Hold verging on Buy set last year. The price target is down as well but flatter than not compared to the broader market down only 2.3% from last year. The price target assumes the stock is fairly valued at the current levels but may begin to move higher if the company is able to outperform its targets.
Marriott International, An Integrated Player In Hotels
Marriott International (NASDAQ: MAR) is host to brands like Ritz-Carlton and Marriott as well as Courtyard and Residence Inn. The company topped its 2019 revenue and earnings in 2022 as well and is on track to grow in 2023. This stock is also paying a low sub-1% yield but a safe yield that should grow in the coming years. The company, like Choice Hotels, cut its payment during the pandemic but has since reinstated it and even grown it. The difference is that Marriott International has yet to bring the payment back to the prepandemic levels and that event when it happens, will be a catalyst for share prices in the future. As for the analysts, they rate this stock a Moderate Buy and have a price target about 10% above the current action.