FORM 6-K
SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION
Washington D.C. 20549


Report of Foreign Private Issuer

Pursuant to Rule 13a-16 or 15d-16
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934


For February 25, 2010

Commission File Number: 001-10306

The Royal Bank of Scotland Group plc

RBS, Gogarburn, PO Box 1000
Edinburgh EH12 1HQ

(Address of principal executive offices)

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant files or will file annual reports under cover of Form 20-F or Form 40-F.

Form 20-F    X     Form 40-F        

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(1):_________

Indicate by check mark if the registrant is submitting the Form 6-K in paper as permitted by Regulation S-T Rule 101(b)(7):_________

Indicate by check mark whether the registrant by furnishing the information contained in this Form is also thereby furnishing the information to the Commission pursuant to Rule 12g3-2(b) under the Securities Exchange Act of 1934.

Yes           No    X  

If "Yes" is marked, indicate below the file number assigned to the registrant in connection with Rule 12g3-2(b): 82- ________





The following information was issued as a Company announcement in London, England and is furnished pursuant to General Instruction B to the General Instructions to Form 6-K:


 

 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures

 

Explanatory note

These disclosures provide information on certain elements of the Group's business activities affected by the unprecedented market events of the second half of 2007 and through 2008 and 2009, the majority of which reside within Non-Core and, to a lesser extent, Global Banking & Markets ('GBM'), US Retail & Commercial and Group Treasury.  For certain disclosures the information presented has been analysed into the Group's Core and Non-Core businesses.

 

Asset-backed securities

The Group structures, originates, distributes and trades debt in the form of loan, bond and derivative instruments, in all major currencies and debt capital markets in North America, Western Europe, Asia and major emerging markets. The carrying value of the Group's debt securities at 31 December 2009 was £249.1 billion (2008 - £253.2 billion).  This comprised:

 

 

2009

 

2008

 

Group before

 RFS Holdings

 minority interest

Group

 

Group before

 RFS Holdings minority interest

Group

 

£bn

£bn

 

£bn

£bn

           

Securities issued by central and local governments

134.1

146.9

 

95.1

105.8

Asset-backed securities

87.6

88.1

 

111.1

111.1

Securities issued by corporates, US federal agencies and other entities

13.4

14.4

 

24.3

26.2

Securities issued by banks and building societies

14.0

17.8

 

22.7

24.4

           

Total debt securities

249.1

267.2

 

253.2

267.5



 

This section focuses on asset-backed securities, an area of interest following the market dislocations in 2007 and 2008.  Asset-backed securities (ABS) are securities with an interest in an underlying pool of referenced assets.  The risks and rewards of the referenced pool are passed onto investors by the issue of securities with varying seniority, by a special purpose entity.

 

The Group has exposures to ABS which are predominantly debt securities but can also be held in derivative form. These positions had been acquired primarily through the Group's activities in the US leveraged finance market which expanded during 2007.  These include residential mortgage backed securities (RMBS), commercial mortgage backed securities (CMBS), ABS collateralised debt obligations (CDOs) and collateralised loan obligations (CLOs) and other ABS.  In many cases the risk on these assets is hedged by way of credit derivative protection, purchased over the specific asset or relevant ABS indices.  The counterparty to some of these hedge transactions are monoline insurers (see Monoline insurers on page 157).

 

The following table summarises the gross and net exposures and carrying values of these securities by geography - US, UK, other Europe and rest of the world (RoW) and by the measurement classification - held-for-trading (HFT), available-for-sale (AFS), loans and receivables (LAR) and designated at fair value through profit or loss (DFV) - of the underlying assets at 31 December 2009.

 

 

151

 



 

Risk and capital management(continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Asset-backed securities (continued)

 

Asset-backed securities by geography and measurement classification

 

 

US 

UK 

Other 

Europe (4) 

RoW 

Total 

HFT 

AFS 

LAR 

DFV 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

                   

2009

                 

Gross exposure:(1)

                 

RMBS: G10 governments(2)

26,693 

314 

16,594 

94 

43,695 

13,536 

30,159 

RMBS: prime

2,965 

5,276 

4,567 

222 

13,030 

6,274 

5,761 

848 

147 

RMBS: non-conforming

1,341 

2,138 

128 

3,607 

635 

1,498 

1,474 

RMBS: sub-prime

1,668 

724 

195 

561 

3,148 

1,632 

1,020 

479 

17 

CMBS

3,422 

1,781 

1,420 

75 

6,698 

2,936 

1,842 

1,711 

209 

CDOs

12,382 

329 

571 

27 

13,309 

9,080 

3,923 

305 

 1 

CLOs

9,092 

166 

2,169 

1,173 

12,600 

5,346 

6,581 

673 

Other ABS

3,587 

1,980 

5,031 

1,569 

12,167 

2,912 

5,252 

3,985 

18 

                   

Total

61,150 

 12,708 

30,675 

3,721 

108,254 

42,351 

56,036 

9,475 

392 

                   

Carrying value:

                 

RMBS: G10 governments(2)

27,034 

305 

16,183  

33 

43,555 

13,397 

30,158  

-  

RMBS: prime

2,697 

4,583 

4,009  

212 

11,501 

5,133 

5,643  

583 

142 

RMBS: non-conforming

958 

1,957 

128  

3,043 

389 

1,180  

1,474 

RMBS: sub-prime

977 

314 

146  

387 

1,824 

779 

704  

324 

17 

CMBS

3,237 

1,305 

924  

43 

5,509 

2,279 

1,638  

1,377 

215 

CDOs

3,275 

166 

400  

27 

3,868 

2,064 

1,600  

203 

CLOs

6,736 

112 

1,469  

999 

9,316 

3,296 

5,500  

520 

Other ABS

2,886 

1,124 

4,369  

1,187 

9,566 

1,483 

4,621  

3,443 

19 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Total

47,800 

9,866 

27,628  

2,888 

88,182 

28,820 

51,044  

7,924 

394 

                   

Net exposure:(3)

                 

RMBS: G10 governments(2)

27,034 

305  

16,183  

33 

43,555  

13,397 

30,158  

-  

-  

RMBS: prime

2,436 

3,747  

3,018  

172 

9,373  

3,167 

5,480  

584  

142  

RMBS: non-conforming

948 

1,957  

128  

3,033  

379 

1,180  

1,474  

-  

RMBS: sub-prime

565 

305  

137  

290 

1,297  

529 

427  

324  

17  

CMBS

2,245 

1,228  

595  

399 

4,467  

1,331 

1,556  

1,377  

203  

CDOs

743 

124  

382  

26 

1,275  

521 

550  

203  

1  

CLOs

1,636 

86  

1,104  

39 

2,865  

673 

1,672  

520  

-  

Other ABS

2,117 

839  

4,331  

1,145 

8,432  

483 

4,621  

3,309  

19  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

Total

37,724 

8,591  

25,878  

2,104 

74,297  

20,480 

45,644  

7,791  

382  



 

For notes to this table refer to page 153.

 

 

152

 



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Asset-backed securities (continued)

 

Asset-backed securities by geography and measurement classification (continued)

 

The table below summarises ABS carrying values and net exposures by geography and measurement classification at 31 December 2008.

 

 

US 

UK 

Other 

Europe

(4) 

RoW 

Total 

 

HFT 

AFS 

LAR 

DFV 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

                     

2008

                   

Carrying value:

                   

RMBS: G10 governments (2)

33,508 

321 

17,682 

46 

51,557 

 

18,631 

32,926 

RMBS: prime

5,623 

4,754 

6,154 

246 

16,777 

 

7,272 

8,769 

570 

166 

RMBS: non-conforming

1,111 

2,906 

4,017 

 

352 

2,183 

1,482 

RMBS: sub-prime

1,824 

445 

439 

381 

3,089 

 

1,594 

913 

566 

16 

CMBS

2,145 

1,395 

1,646 

141 

5,327 

 

2,751 

1,126 

1,437 

13 

CDOs

8,275 

259 

441 

45 

9,020 

 

4,389 

4,280 

351 

CLOs

6,428 

329 

2,605 

255 

9,617 

 

3,385 

5,299 

933 

Other ABS

3,582 

1,622 

5,098 

1,437 

11,739 

 

1,505 

6,572 

3,621 

41 

                     
 

62,496 

12,031 

34,065 

2,551 

111,143 

 

39,879 

62,068 

8,960 

236 

                     

Net exposure: (3)

                   

RMBS: G10 governments (2)

33,508 

321 

17,682 

46 

51,557 

 

18,631 

32,926 

RMBS: prime

5,548 

3,667 

5,212 

215 

14,642 

 

5,138 

8,768 

570 

166 

RMBS: non-conforming

1,106 

2,906 

4,012 

 

346 

2,184 

1,482 

RMBS: sub-prime

358 

408 

380 

313 

1,459 

 

346 

571 

526 

16 

CMBS

1,147 

1,225 

1,095 

79 

3,546 

 

1,178 

918 

1,437 

13 

CDOs

2,402 

127 

311 

2,840 

 

1,618 

873 

349 

CLOs

874 

259 

2,139 

171 

3,443 

 

845 

1,665 

933 

Other ABS

3,507 

1,367 

4,299 

1,256 

10,429 

 

196 

6,572 

3,621 

40 

                     
 

48,450 

10,280 

31,118 

2,080 

91,928 

 

28,298 

54,477 

8,918 

235 



 

Notes:

(1)

Gross exposures represent the principal amounts relating to asset-backed securities.

(2)

RMBS: G10 government securities comprises securities that are:

 

(a)

Guaranteed or effectively guaranteed by the US government, by way of its support for US federal agencies and Government sponsored enterprises (GSEs);

 

(b)

Guaranteed by the Dutch government; and

 

(c)

Covered bonds, referencing primarily Dutch and Spanish government-backed loans.

(3)

Net exposures represent the carrying value after taking account of hedge protection purchased from monoline insurers and other counterparties but exclude the effect of counterparty credit valuation adjustments.  The hedges provide credit protection of principal and interest cashflows in the event of default by the counterparty.  The value of this protection is based on the underlying instrument being protected.

(4)

Includes prime RMBS in RFS Holdings minority interests at 31 December 2009 comprising gross exposure: £558 million, carrying value: £579 million, and net exposure: £579 million. There was no ABS in RFS Holdings minority interest at 31 December 2008.



153



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Asset-backed securities (continued)

 

Asset-backed securities by rating and valuation hierarchy level

 

The table below summarises the ratings and valuation hierarchy levels of ABS carrying values.

 

 

Ratings (1)

 

Of which carried at fair value (2)

 

AAA 

 rated (1) 

BBB- 

 rated and 

 above (1) 

Non- 

Investment  grade 

Not 

 publicly 

 rated 

Total 

 

Level 2 

Level 3 

Total 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m

£m 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

                   

2009

                 

RMBS: G10 governments

43,005 

550 

43,555 

 

43,555 

43,555 

RMBS: prime

9,211 

1,731 

558 

11,501 

 

10,696 

221 

10,917 

RMBS: non-conforming

1,980 

467 

594 

3,043 

 

1,549 

21 

1,570 

RMBS: sub-prime

578 

514 

579 

153 

1,824 

 

1,371 

128 

1,499 

CMBS

3,440 

1,920 

147 

5,509 

 

4,000 

134 

4,134 

CDOs

616 

2,141 

849 

262 

3,868 

 

2,640 

1,025 

3,665 

CLOs

2,718 

5,232 

636 

730 

9,316 

 

7,978 

818 

8,796 

Other ABS

4,099 

4,516 

152 

799 

9,566 

 

5,177 

946 

6,123 

                   
 

65,647 

17,071 

3,515 

1,949 

88,182 

 

76,966 

3,293 

80,259 

                   

2008

                 

RMBS: G10 governments

51,548 

51,557 

 

51,322 

235 

51,557 

RMBS: prime

15,252 

1,417 

106 

16,777 

 

16,061 

146 

16,207 

RMBS: non-conforming

3,532 

337 

146 

4,017 

 

2,486 

50 

2,536 

RMBS: sub-prime

1,362 

936 

790 

3,089 

 

2,459 

64 

2,523 

CMBS

3,702 

1,586 

38 

5,327 

 

3,315 

574 

3,889 

CDOs

4,510 

2,041 

2,088 

381 

9,020 

 

6,922 

1,748 

8,670 

CLOs

7,299 

1,601 

268 

449 

9,617 

 

7,721 

963 

8,684 

Other ABS

6,649 

3,519 

242 

1,329 

11,739 

 

6,676 

1,442 

8,118 

                   
 

93,854 

11,437 

3,678 

2,174 

111,143 

 

96,962 

5,222 

102,184 



 

Notes:

(1)

Credit ratings are based on those from rating agency Standard & Poor's (S&P).  Moody's and Fitch have been mapped onto the S&P scale.

(2)

Fair value hierarchy levels 2 and 3 as defined by IFRS.



154



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Asset-backed securities (continued)

 

Key points

 

·

Total asset-backed securities decreased from £111.1 billion at 31 December 2008 to £88.2 billion at 31 December 2009, due principally to exchange rate movements and the significant sell-down activity which took place in the first half of the year. In addition, credit spreads widened in the first half of the year, further reducing carrying values, although this was off-set to some extent by spreads tightening in the second half of the year.  Sales have been limited in the second half of the year, however maturities have continued to reduce the balance sheet exposures.

   

·

Life-to-date net valuation losses on ABS held at 31 December 2009, including impairment provisions, were £20.1 billion comprising:

   
 

·

RMBS: £3.6 billion, of which £0.7 billion was in US sub-prime and £2.3 billion in European assets;

   
 

·

CMBS: £1.2 billion;

   
 

·

CDOs: £9.4 billion and CLOs: £3.3 billion, significantly all in Non-Core; and

   
 

·

Other ABS: £2.6 billion.

   

·

The majority of the Group's exposure to ABS is through government-backed RMBS, amounting to £43.6 billion at 31 December  2009 (2008 - £51.6 billion), and includes:

   
 

·

US government-backed securities, comprising mainly current year vintage positions, were £27.0 billion (2008 - £33.5 billion). Due to the US government backing, explicit or implicit, for these securities, the counterparty credit risk exposure is low.  This is comprised of:

   
   

·     HFT securities of £13.4 billion (2008 - £18.6 billion).  These securities are
     actively transacted and possess a high degree of liquidity. Trading in this
     portfolio has shifted to more recent vintages;

   
   

·     AFS securities of £13.6 billion (2008 - £14.9 billion) relating to liquidity portfolios
     held by US Retail & Commercial; and

   
   

·     The decrease in exposure over the year were due to foreign exchange
     movements driven by the strengthening of sterling against the US dollar in the
     first half of the year and a decrease in the balances in the second half of the
     year. 

     
 

·

Other European government-backed exposures of £16.2 billion. This largely comprises liquidity portfolios of £15.6 billion held by Group Treasury (2008 - £17.7 billion) in European government-backed RMBS, referencing primarily Dutch and Spanish government-backed loans and covered mortgage bonds. The portfolio reduced during the year, driven primarily by exchange rate movements partially off-set by improved prices mainly during the second half of the year.

     

·

The Group has other portfolios of RMBS from secondary trading activities, warehoused positions previously acquired with the intention of securitisation, and a portfolio of assets from the unwinding of the Group's securities arbitrage conduit in 2008.

   

·

Material disposals of prime RMBS occurred in the first half of the year, in particular £1.5 billion of 2005 vintage US securities, £0.5 billion of Spanish and Portuguese mortgages and £0.6 billion of positions which were hedged.

   
         

155

 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Asset-backed securities (continued)

 

Key points (continued)

 

·

CDOs decreased from £9.0 billion at 31 December 2008 to £3.9 billion at 31 December 2009, driven primarily by significant declines in prices, together with foreign exchange movements, in the first half of the year. 

   

·

Subprime balances decreased across ratings, geographies and vintages, due to pay-downs, maturities and sales during the year, while non-conforming exposures fell mainly due to UK AAA-rated AFS redemptions. During the third quarter, improved prices off-set the effect of redemptions in some portfolios.

   

·

US Mortgage trading in GBM, US Retail and Commercial are in Core.

   

·

Many of the assets, primarily CDOs and CLOs, in Non-Core Trading have market hedges in place which gives rise to a significant difference between the carrying value and the net exposure.

   

·

AAA-rated assets decreased from £93.9 billion at 31 December 2008 to £65.6 billion at 31 December 2009 primarily as a result of the sell-down activity of prime and government-backed securities.

   

·

There was no significant change in the percentage of asset-backed securities classified as level 2 and level 3 assets year-on-year (2009 - 87% and 4% respectively, 2008 - 87% and 5% respectively).

   

·

There were significant downgrades of AAA-rated CLOs to BBB during the year.

     


156

 



 

Risk and capital management(continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments

 

Credit valuation adjustments (CVA)

CVA represents an estimate of the adjustment to arrive at fair value that a market participant would make to incorporate the credit risk inherent in counterparty derivative exposures. The Group makes credit adjustments to derivative exposures it has to counterparties as well as debit valuation adjustments (DVA) to liabilities issued by the Group. The Group's methodology used for deriving DVA is different to that used for CVA and is discussed within Note 13 Financial Instruments - own credit on page 100.

 

The Group has purchased protection on its asset-backed exposures from monoline insurers ('monolines'), credit derivative product companies (CDPCs) and other counterparties. The Group makes CVAs to exposures it has to these counterparties.  The CVAs at 31 December 2009 are set out below.

 

 

2009

2008

 

£m

£m

     

Monoline insurers

3,796

5,988

CDPCs

499

1,311

Other counterparties

1,588

1,738

     

Total CVA adjustments

5,883

9,037



 

Key points

 

·

During 2009, there was a significant reduction in the level of CVA held against exposures to monoline insurers and CDPCs, primarily driven by a reduction in the gross exposures to these counterparties due to a combination of restructuring certain trades and higher prices of underlying reference instruments;

   

·

The reduction in CVA held against exposures to other counterparties was primarily driven by a reduction in counterparty risk due to credit spreads tightening.



 

Monoline insurers

The Group has purchased protection from monolines, mainly against specific asset-backed securities. Monolines specialise in providing credit protection against the principal and interest cash flows due to the holders of debt instruments in the event of default by the debt instrument counterparty.  This protection is typically held in the form of derivatives such as credit default swaps (CDSs) referencing underlying exposures held directly or synthetically by the Group.

 

The gross mark-to-market of the monoline protection depends on the value of the instruments against which protection has been bought.  A positive fair value, or a valuation gain, in the protection is recognised if the fair value of the instrument it references decreases.  For the majority of trades the gross mark-to-market of the monoline protection is determined directly from the fair value price of the underlying reference instrument.  For the remainder of the trades the gross mark-to-market is determined using industry standard models.

 

 

157

 



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

 

Monoline insurers (continued)

The methodology employed to calculate the monoline CVA uses CDS spreads and recovery levels to determine the market implied level of expected loss on monoline exposures of different maturities. CVA is calculated at a trade level by applying the expected loss corresponding to each trade's expected maturity to the gross mark-to-market of the monoline protection.  The expected maturity of each trade reflects the scheduled notional amortisation of the underlying reference instruments and whether payments due from the monoline insurer are received at the point of default or over the life of the underlying reference instruments.

 

The table below summarises the Group's exposure to monolines, all of which are in the Non-Core division.

 

 

2009 

  2008 

 

£m 

£m 

     

Gross exposure to monolines

6,170 

11,581 

Hedges with financial institutions

(531)

(789)

Credit valuation adjustment

(3,796)

(5,988)

     

Net exposure to monolines

1,843 

4,804 

     

CVA as a % of gross exposure

62%

52%



 

Key points

 

·

The exposure to monoline insurers has decreased considerably during 2009 due to a combination of restructuring certain exposures and higher prices of underlying reference instruments. The trades with monoline insurers are predominantly denominated in US dollars, and the strengthening of sterling against the US dollar during 2009 has further reduced the exposure.

   

·

The overall level of CVA has decreased, in line with the reduction in exposure to these counterparties. However, relative to the exposure to monoline counterparties, the CVA has increased from 52% to 62% due to a combination of wider credit spreads and lower recovery rates. These moves have been driven by deterioration in the credit quality of the monoline insurers as evidenced by rating downgrades (as shown in the following table, together with the Group's exposure to monoline insurers by asset category). 

   

·

Counterparty and credit RWAs relating to risk structures incorporating gross monoline exposures increased from £7.3 billion to £13.7 billion over the year.  The increase was driven by revised credit assessments of these counterparties in the first nine months of the year, partially off-set by reductions in Q4 due to restructuring.

     


158

 



 

Risk and capital management(continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

 

Monoline insurers (continued)

The table below summarises monoline exposures by rating.

 

 

Notional 

 amount: 

 protected 

 assets 

Fair value: 

protected 

 assets 

Gross  

 exposure 

Credit 

 valuation 

 adjustment 

Hedges 

Net exposure 

 to monoline 

 insurers 

 

£m 

£m

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

             

2009

           

AA rated

7,143 

5,875 

1,268 

378 

890 

Sub-investment grade

12,598 

7,696 

4,902 

3,418 

531 

953 

             

Total

19,741 

13,571 

6,170 

3,796 

531 

1,843 

             

Of which:

           

CDOs

2,284 

797 

1,487 

1,059 

   

RMBS

82 

66 

16 

   

CMBS

4,253 

2,034 

2,219 

1,562 

   

CLOs

10,007 

8,584 

1,423 

641 

   

Other ABS

2,606 

1,795 

811 

410 

   

Other

509 

295 

214 

122 

   
             
 

19,741 

13,571 

6,170 

3,796 

   
             

2008

           

AA rated

8,937 

6,537 

2,400 

1,067 

1,333 

BBB rated

16,895 

8,396 

8,499 

4,426 

768 

3,305 

Sub-investment grade

2,188 

1,506 

682 

495 

21 

166 

             

Total

28,020 

16,439 

11,581 

5,988 

789 

4,804 

             

Of which:

           

CDOs

5,779 

1,395 

4,384 

2,201 

   

RMBS

93 

65 

28 

10 

   

CMBS

4,849 

2,388 

2,461 

1,429 

   

CLOs

12,865 

9,673 

3,192 

1,556 

   

Other ABS

3,666 

2,460 

1,206 

617 

   

Other

768 

458 

310 

175 

   
             
 

28,020 

16,439 

11,581 

5,988 

   


 

Credit ratings are based on those from rating agencies Standard & Poor's (S&P) and Moody's. Where the ratings differ, the lower of the two is taken.

 

Key points

 

·

The majority of the current exposure is to sub-investment grade monoline counterparties.  Nearly all such counterparties were down-graded during the year.  

   

·

The main exposure relates to CMBS, CDOs and CLOs.

   

·

CDO and CLO prices improved during the year, mostly in the last quarter, whilst CMBS deteriorated slightly overall during the year, with a slight improvement in Q4.

     

159



Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

 

Monoline insurers (continued)

A number of debt instruments with monoline protection were reclassified from held-for-trading to available-for-sale with effect from 1 July 2008.  Changes in the fair value since the reclassification are only recognised in the income statement to the extent that they are considered impairments. Changes in the fair value of the related monoline protection continue to be recorded in the income statement.  Higher prices of these debt securities in 2009 gave rise to net losses from the corresponding decrease in the gross mark-to-market of the related monoline protection.  The reclassification gave rise to profits in 2008.  A summary of the reclassified debt securities held at 31 December 2009 is shown in the table below:

 

 

£m 

   

Fair value at 1 July 2008 (1)

6,248 

Fair value at 31 December 2009 (2)

5,022 



 

Notes:

(1)

Represents the fair value of the reclassified debt securities, adjusted for principal based cash flows between 1 July 2008 and 31 December 2009.

(2)

Of the net change in fair value, fair value losses of £563 million have not been recognised in the income statement.



 

If the debt securities had not been reclassified, all changes in fair value would have been recognised in the income statement and would be off-set by changes in the fair value of the related monoline CDS. The extent to which the level of impairments recorded differs from the fair value changes gives rise to a net profit or loss that, but for the reclassification, would have been recorded for accounting purposes.

 

The net income statement effect relating to monoline exposures is shown below.

 

 

£m 

   

Credit valuation adjustment  at 1 January 2009

(5,988)

Credit valuation adjustment at 31 December 2009

(3,796)

   

Decrease in credit valuation adjustment

2,192 

Net debit relating to realisation, hedges, foreign exchange and other movements

(3,290)

Net debit relating to reclassified debt securities

(1,468)

   

Net debit to income statement (1)

(2,566)



 

Note:

(1)

Comprises a loss of £2,387 million recorded as income from trading activities, £239 million of impairment losses and £60 million of other income relating to reclassified debt securities.



 

Key points

 

·

Realised losses arising from restructuring certain exposures, together with the impact of the US dollar weakening against sterling, are the primary components of the £3.3 billion above.

   

·

The net loss arising from the reclassification of debt securities is due to the difference between   impairment losses on these available-for-sale securities and the gains that would have been reported in the income statement if these assets had continued to be accounted for as held-for-trading.

     

160

 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

 

Monoline insurers (continued)

 

The Group also has indirect exposures to monoline insurers through wrapped securities and other assets with credit enhancement monoline insurers.  These securities are traded with the benefit of this credit enhancement.  Any deterioration in the credit rating of the monoline is reflected in the fair value of these assets.

 

Credit derivative product companies (CDPC)

A CDPC is a company that sells protection on credit derivatives. CDPCs are similar to monoline insurers, however they are not regulated as insurers.

 

The Group has purchased credit protection from CDPCs through tranched and single name credit derivatives.  The Group's exposure to CDPCs is predominantly due to tranched credit derivatives (tranches).  A tranche references a portfolio of loans and bonds and provides protection against total portfolio default losses exceeding a certain percentage of the portfolio notional (the attachment point) up to another percentage (the detachment point).  The Group has predominantly traded senior tranches with CDPCs, the average attachment and detachment points are 15% and 51% respectively (2008 - 16% and 50% respectively), and the majority of the loans and bonds in the reference portfolios are investment grade. 

 

The gross mark-to-market of the CDPC protection is determined using industry standard models.  The methodology employed to calculate the CDPC CVA is different to that outlined above for monolines, as there are no market observable credit spreads and recovery levels for these entities. The level of expected loss on CDPC exposures is estimated by analysing the underlying trades and the cost of hedging expected default losses in excess of the capital available in each vehicle.

 

A summary of the Group's exposure to CDPCs is detailed below:

 

 

2009 

2008 

 

£m 

£m 

     

Gross exposure to CDPCs

1,275 

4,776 

Credit valuation adjustment

(499)

(1,311)

     

Net exposure to CDPCs

776 

3,465 

     

CVA as a % of gross exposure

39%

27%


161



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

 

Credit derivative product companies (continued)

 

Key points

 

·

The exposure to CDPCs reduced significantly during the year mainly due to a combination of tighter credit spreads of the underlying reference loans and bonds, and a decrease in the relative value of senior tranches compared with the underlying reference portfolios. The trades with CDPCs are predominantly US and Canadian dollar denominated, and the strengthening of sterling against the US dollar has further reduced the exposure, partially off-set by the weakening of sterling against the Canadian dollar.

   

·

The overall level of CVA decreased, in line with the reduction in exposure to these counterparties, however on a relative basis the CVA has increased from 27% to 39%.  This reflects the perceived deterioration of the credit quality of the CDPCs as reflected by ratings down-grades. Further analysis of the Group's exposure to CDPCs by counterparty credit rating is shown in the following table.

   

·

Counterparty and credit RWAs relating to gross CDPC exposures increased from £5.0 billion to £7.5 billion over the year. In addition, regulatory capital deductions of £347 million were taken at the end of the year (2008 - nil).

     


 

The table below summarises CDPC exposures by rating.

 

 

Notional 

 amount: 

protected assets 

Fair value: 

protected 

reference assets 

Gross 

exposure 

Credit 

 valuation 

 adjustment 

Net exposure 

 to CDPCs 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

           

2009

         

AAA rated

1,658 

1,637 

21 

16 

BBB rated

1,070 

1,043 

27 

18 

Sub-investment grade

17,696 

16,742 

954 

377 

577 

Rating withdrawn

3,926 

3,653 

273 

108 

165 

           
 

24,350 

23,075 

1,275 

499 

776 

           

2008

         

AAA rated

6,351 

4,780 

1,571 

314 

1,257 

AA rated

12,741 

10,686 

2,055 

594 

1,461 

A rated

1,546 

1,321 

225 

79 

146 

BBB rated

4,601 

3,676 

925 

324 

601 

           
 

25,239 

20,463 

4,776 

1,311 

3,465 

 

162



 

Risk and capital management(continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

Credit derivative product companies (continued)

 

Key points

 

·

Nearly all of the current exposure is to CDPCs that are either sub-investment grade or have had their rating withdrawn in 2009. The majority of CDPC counterparties suffered rating downgrades during the year.

   

·

£750 million of the net exposure at 31 December 2009 is in the Non-Core division, including all of the sub-investment grade exposure.

     


 

The net income statement effect arising from CDPC exposures is shown below.  

 

 

£m 

   

Credit valuation adjustment  at 1 January 2009

(1,311)

Credit valuation adjustment at 31 December 2009

(499)

   

Decrease in credit valuation adjustment

812 

Net debit relating to hedges, foreign exchange and other movements

(1,769)

   

Net debit to income statement (income from trading activities)

(957)



 

Key points

 

·

The Group has additional hedges in place which effectively cap the exposure to CDPCs where the Group has significant risk. As the exposure to these CDPCs has reduced, losses have been incurred on the additional hedges.

   

·

These losses, together with losses arising on trades hedging CVA, are the primary components of the £1.8 billion above.

     


 

CVA attributable to other counterparties

CVA for all other counterparties is calculated on a portfolio basis reflecting an estimate of the amount a third party would charge to assume the credit risk.

 

Expected losses are determined from market implied probability of defaults and internally assessed recovery levels. The probability of default is calculated with reference to observable credit spreads and observable recovery levels. For counterparties where observable data does not exist, the probability of default is determined from the average credit spreads and recovery levels of baskets of similarly rated entities.  A weighting of 50% to 100% is applied to arrive at the CVA.  The weighting reflects portfolio churn and varies according to the counterparty credit quality.

 

 

163

 



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

 

CVA attributable to other counterparties (continued)

Expected losses are applied to estimated potential future exposures which are modelled to reflect the volatility of the market factors which drive the exposures and the correlation between those factors. Potential future exposures arising from vanilla products (including interest rate and foreign exchange derivatives) are modelled jointly using the Group's Core counterparty risk systems. At 31 December 2009, over 75% of the Group's CVA held in relation to other counterparties arises on these vanilla products.  The exposures arising from all other product types are modelled and assessed individually. The potential future exposure to counterparties is the aggregate of the exposures arising on the underlying product types.

 

Correlation between exposure and counterparty risk is also incorporated within the CVA calculation where this risk is considered significant.  The risk primarily arises on trades with emerging market counterparties where the gross mark-to-market value of the trade, and therefore the counterparty exposure, increases as the strength of the local currency declines.

 

Collateral held under a credit support agreement is factored into the CVA calculation.  In such cases where the Group holds collateral against counterparty exposures, CVA is held to the extent that residual risk remains.

 

CVA is held against exposures to all counterparties with the exception of the CDS protection that the Group has purchased from HM Treasury, as part of its participation in the Asset Protection Scheme, due to the unique features of this derivative.

 

The net income statement effect arising from the change in level of CVA for all other counterparties and related trades is shown in the table below.

 

 

£m 

   

Credit valuation adjustment  at 1 January 2009

(1,738)

Credit valuation adjustment at 31 December 2009

(1,588)

   

Decrease in credit valuation adjustment

150 

Net debit relating to hedges, foreign exchange and other movements

(841)

   

Net debit to income statement (income from trading activities)

(691)

 

164



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Credit valuation adjustments (continued)

 

CVA attributable to other counterparties (continued)

                  

Key points

 

·

Losses arose on trades hedging the CVA held against other counterparties due to credit spreads tightening. These losses, together with realised losses from counterparty defaults, are the primary cause of the loss arising on foreign exchange, hedges, realisations and other movements.

   

·

The net income statement effect was driven by updates to the CVA methodology, hedges and realised defaults off-setting CVA movements.

   
 

·

The primary update applied to the CVA methodology reflected a market wide shift in the approach to pricing and managing counterparty risk.  The methodology change related to the calculation of the probability of default.  The basis for this calculation moved from a blend of market implied and historic measure to the market implied methodology set out above.  Other updates to the methodology were made to reflect the correlation between exposure and counterparty risk.

 
 

·

Prior to the update to the CVA methodology, CVA moves driven by changes to the historic element of the blended measure were not hedged, resulting in losses during the year arising from related CVA increases.

   
 

·

The CVA is calculated on a portfolio basis and reflects an estimate of the losses that will arise across the portfolio due to counterparty defaults. It is not possible to perfectly hedge the risks driving the CVA and this leads to differences between CVA and hedge movements. Differences also arise between realised default losses and the proportion of CVA held in relation to individual counterparties.

       


165



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Leveraged finance

 

Leveraged finance is commonly employed to facilitate corporate finance transactions, such as acquisitions or buy-outs, and is so called due to the high ratio of debt to equity (leverage) common in such transactions.  A bank acting as a lead manager for a leveraged finance transaction will typically underwrite a loan, alone or with others, and then syndicate the loan to other participants.  The Group typically held a portion of these loans as part of its long-term portfolio once primary syndication is completed ('hold portfolio').  Most of the leveraged finance loans held as part of syndicated lending portfolio were reclassified from held-for-trading to loans and receivables with effect from 1 July 2008.

 

Leveraged finance provided by the Group that has been drawn down by the counterparty is reported on the balance sheet in loans and advances.  Undrawn amounts of the facility provided to the borrower are reported in memorandum items - commitments to lend.

 

The table below shows the Group's global markets sponsor-led leveraged finance exposures by industry and geography.  The gross exposure represents the total amount of leveraged finance committed by the Group (drawn and undrawn).  The net exposure represents the balance sheet carrying values of drawn leveraged finance and the total undrawn amount.  The difference between gross and net exposures is principally due to the cumulative effect of impairment provisions and historic write-downs on assets prior to reclassification.

 

2009

 

2008

 

Americas 

UK 

Other 

Europe 

RoW 

Total 

 

Americas 

UK 

Other 

Europe 

RoW 

Total 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

£m 

                       

Gross exposure:

                     

TMT (2)

1,781 

1,656 

1,081 

605 

5,123 

 

2,507 

1,484 

2,001 

535 

6,527 

Industrial

1,584 

1,523 

1,781 

207 

5,095 

 

1,686 

1,612 

1,924 

188 

5,410 

Retail

17 

476 

1,354 

71 

1,918 

 

268 

1,285 

1,440 

89 

3,082 

Other

244 

1,527 

1,168 

191 

3,130 

 

487 

1,391 

1,282 

126 

3,286 

                       
 

3,626 

5,182 

5,384 

1,074 

15,266 

 

4,948 

5,772 

6,647 

938 

18,305 

                       

Net exposure:

                     

TMT (2)

1,502 

1,532 

1,045 

590 

4,669 

 

2,247 

1,385 

1,982 

534 

6,148 

Industrial

524 

973 

1,594 

205 

3,296 

 

607 

1,157 

1,758 

186 

3,708 

Retail

17 

445 

1,282 

68 

1,812 

 

223 

978 

1,424 

89 

2,714 

Other

244 

1,461 

1,147 

191 

3,043 

 

484 

1,307 

1,281 

127 

3,199 

                       
 

2,287 

4,411 

5,068 

1,054 

12,820 

 

3,561 

4,827 

6,445 

936 

15,769 

                       

Of which:

                     

Drawn

1,944 

3,737 

3,909 

950 

10,540 

 

2,511 

4,125 

5,159 

824 

12,619 

Undrawn

343 

674 

1,159 

104 

2,280 

 

1,050 

702 

1,286 

112 

3,150 

                       
 

2,287 

4,411 

5,068 

1,054 

12,820 

 

3,561 

4,827 

6,445 

936 

15,769 



 

Notes:

(1)

All the above exposures are in Non-Core.

(2)

Telecommunications, media and technology.

(3)

There were no held-for-trading exposures at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £102 million).


166



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Leveraged finance (continued)

 

The table below analyses the movements in leveraged finance exposures for the year ended 31 December 2009.

 

 

Drawn 

Undrawn

Total

 

£m 

£m

£m

       

Balance at 1 January 2009

12,619 

3,150 

15,769 

Transfers in (from credit trading business)

563 

41 

604 

Sales

(247)

(144)

(391)

Repayments and facility reductions

(934)

(392)

(1,326)

Funded deals

166 

(166)

Lapsed/collapsed deals

(19)

(19)

Changes in fair value

(31)

 - 

(31)

Accretion of interest

100 

100 

Impairment provisions

(1,041)

(1,041)

Exchange and other movements

(655)

(190)

(845)

       

Balance at 31 December 2009

10,540 

2,280 

12,820 



 

Key points

 

·

Since the beginning of the credit market dislocation in the second half of 2007, investor appetite for leveraged loans and similar risky assets has fallen dramatically, with higher perceived risk of default due to the leverage involved. Furthermore, secondary prices of leveraged loans traded fell due to selling pressure and margins increasing, as well as reduced activity in the primary market.

   

·

During 2009 the Group's sterling exposure has declined, largely as a result of the weakening of the US dollar and euro against sterling during the period.

   

·

There have also been a number of credit impairments and write-offs during 2009, including some names which the Group previously held as part of its syndicate portfolio.

   

·

Early repayments as a result of re-financings have further reduced the exposure.

     


 

Not included in the table above are:

·

UK Corporate leveraged finance net exposures of £7.1 billion at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £6.9 billion) related to debt and banking facilities provided to UK mid-corporates. Of this, £1.4 billion related to facilities provided to clients in the retail sector and £2.1 billion to the industrial sector (2008 - £1.4 billion and £2.5 billion respectively).

   

·

Ulster Bank leveraged finance net exposures of £0.6 billion at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £0.7 billion).

     


167

 



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Special purpose entities

 

The Group arranges securitisations to facilitate client transactions and undertakes securitisations to sell financial assets or to fund specific portfolios of assets.  The Group also acts as an underwriter and depositor in securitisation transactions involving both client and proprietary transactions.  In a securitisation, assets, or interests in a pool of assets, are transferred generally to a special purpose entity (SPE) which then issues liabilities to third party investors.  SPEs are vehicles established for a specific, limited purpose, usually do not carry out a business or trade and typically have no employees. They take a variety of legal forms - trusts, partnerships and companies - and fulfil many different functions.  As well as being a key element of securitisations, SPEs are also used in fund management activities to segregate custodial duties from the fund management advice provided by the Group.

 

The table below sets out the asset categories together with the carrying amount of the assets and associated liabilities for those securitisations and other asset transfers, other than conduits (discussed below), where the assets continue to be recorded on the Group's balance sheet.

 

 

2009

 

2008

 

Assets 

Liabilities 

 

Assets 

Liabilities 

 

£m 

£m 

 

£m 

£m 

           

Residential mortgages

69,927 

15,937 

 

55,714*

20,075 

Credit card receivables

2,975 

1,592 

 

3,004 

3,197 

Other loans

36,448 

1,010 

 

1,679 

1,071 

Finance lease receivables

597 

597 

 

1,077 

857 



* revised

 

Key points

 

·

The increase in both residential mortgages and other loan assets in the year principally relates to assets securitised to facilitate access to central bank liquidity schemes.

   

·

As all notes issued by own-asset securitisation SPEs are purchased by Group companies, assets are significantly greater than securitised liabilities.

     


 

Conduits

Group-sponsored conduits can be divided into multi-seller conduits and own-asset conduits.  The Group consolidates both types of conduit where the substance of the relationship between the Group and the conduit vehicle is such that the vehicle is controlled by the Group.  The total assets held by Group-sponsored conduits were £27.4 billion at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £49.9 billion). Liquidity commitments from the Group to the conduit exceed the nominal amount of assets funded by the conduit as liquidity commitments are sized to cover the funding cost of the related assets.

 

Group-sponsored multi-seller conduits

Multi-seller conduits account for 43% of the total liquidity and credit enhancements committed by the Group at 31 December 2009 (2008 - 69.4%).

 

 

168

 



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Special purpose entities (continued)

 

Key points

 

·

The maturity of commercial paper issued by the Group's conduits is managed to mitigate the short-term contingent liquidity risk of providing back-up facilities. The Group's limits sanctioned for such liquidity facilities at 31 December 2009 totalled approximately £25.0 billion (2008 - £42.9 billion).  For a very small number of transactions within one multi-seller conduit the liquidity facilities have been provided by third-party banks. This typically occurs on transactions where the third-party bank does not use, or have, its own conduit vehicles.

   

·

The Group's maximum exposure to loss on its multi-seller conduits is £25.2 billion (2008 - £43.2 billion), being the total amount of the Group's liquidity commitments plus the extent of programme-wide credit enhancements of conduit assets for which liquidity facilities were provided by third parties.

   

·

The Group's multi-seller conduits have continued to fund the vast majority of their assets solely through ABCP issuance.  There have been no significant systemic failures within the financial markets similar to that experienced in the second half of 2008 following Lehman Brothers bankruptcy filing in September 2008. The improvement in market conditions has allowed these conduits to move towards more normal ABCP funding and reduced the need for backstop funding from the Group.

     


 

 

Group-sponsored own-asset conduits

The Group's own-asset conduit programmes have been established to diversify the Group's funding sources.  The conduits allow the Group to access central government funding schemes and the external ABCP market.

 

The Group holds three own-asset conduits which have assets that have previously been funded by the Group.  These vehicles represent 56% (2008 - 25%) of the Group's conduit business (as a percentage of the total liquidity and credit enhancements committed by the Group), with £7.7 billion of ABCP outstanding at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £14.8 billion).  The Group's maximum exposure to loss on its own-asset conduits is £34.2 billion (2008 - £15.9 billion), being the total drawn and undrawn amount of the Group's liquidity commitments to these conduits.  This comprises committed liquidity of $40.8 billion (£25.1 billion) to an own-asset conduit established to access the Bank of England's open market operations and £9.1 billion to other own-asset conduits.  One of these conduits was established for contingent funding and at 31 December 2009 it had no commercial paper outstanding, the Group's liquidity commitment to this conduit is not included in the table below.

 

 

169

 



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Special purpose entities (continued)

 

Group exposure to consolidated conduits

The exposure to conduits which are consolidated by the Group is set out below.

 

 

2009

 

2008 

 

Core 

Non-Core 

Total 

   
 

£m 

£m 

£m 

 

£m 

           

Total assets held by the conduits

23,409 

3,957 

27,366 

 

49,857 

           

Commercial paper issued

22,644 

2,939 

25,583 

 

48,684 

           

Liquidity and credit enhancements:

         

Deal specific liquidity:

         

-  drawn

738 

1,059 

1,797 

 

1,172 

-  undrawn

28,628 

3,852 

32,480 

 

57,929 

PWCE (1)

1,167 

341 

1,508 

 

2,391 

           
 

30,533 

5,252 

35,785 

 

61,492 

           

Maximum exposure to loss (2)

29,365 

4,911 

34,276 

 

59,101 



 

Notes:

(1)

Programme-wide credit enhancement.

(2)

Maximum exposure to loss is determined as the Group's total liquidity commitments to the conduits and additionally programme-wide credit support which would absorb first loss on transactions where liquidity support is provided by a third party. Third party maximum exposure to loss is reduced by repo trades conducted with an external counterparty.



 

During the period both multi-seller and own asset conduit assets have been reduced in line with the wider Group balance sheet management. 

 

Third-party-sponsored conduits

The Group also extends liquidity commitments to multi-seller conduits sponsored by other banks, but typically does not consolidate these entities as the Group does not retain the majority of risks and rewards.

 

 

170

 



 

Risk and capital management (continued)

 

Market turmoil exposures: Special purpose entities (continued)

 

Third-party-sponsored conduits (continued)

 

The Group's exposure from third-party conduits is analysed below.

 

 

2009

 

 

2008 

 

Core 

Non-Core 

Total 

   
 

£m 

£m 

£m 

 

£m 

           

Liquidity and credit enhancements:

         

Deal specific liquidity:

         

- drawn

223 

120 

343 

 

3,078 

- undrawn

206 

38 

244 

 

198 

Programme-wide liquidity:

         

- drawn

 

102 

- undrawn

 

504 

           
 

429 

158 

587 

 

3,882 

           
           

Maximum exposure to loss (1)

429 

158 

587 

 

3,882 



 

Note:

(1)

Maximum exposure to loss is determined as the Group's total liquidity commitments to the conduits and additionally programme-wide credit support which would absorb first loss on transactions where liquidity support is provided by a third party.



 

Structured investment vehicles

The Group does not sponsor any structured investment vehicles.

 

Investment funds set up and managed by the Group

The Group has established and manages a number of money market funds for its customers.  When a new money market fund is launched, the Group typically provides a limited amount of seed capital to the funds.  The Group has investments in these funds of £776 million at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £107 million).  The investors in both money market and non-money market funds have recourse to the assets of the funds only.  These funds are not consolidated by the Group. At 31 December 2009 the Group had exposure to one fund amounting to £145 million (2008 - £144 million).

 

The Group's money market funds held assets of £9.6 billion at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £13.6 billion).  

 

The Group has also established a number of non-money market funds to enable investors to invest in a range of assets including bonds, equities, hedge funds, private equity and real estate. The Group's non-money market funds had total assets of £14.9 billion at 31 December 2009 (2008 - £18.7 billion).  In January 2010, the Group entered into a sale agreement with Aberdeen Asset Management plc for assets of £13.3 billion in these funds.

 

171


Signatures



Pursuant to the requirements of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, the registrant has duly caused this report to be signed on its behalf by the undersigned, thereunto duly authorized.



Date: 25 February 2010

  THE ROYAL BANK OF SCOTLAND GROUP plc (Registrant)


  By: /s/ A N Taylor

  Name:
Title:
A N Taylor
Head of Group Secretariat